Oakland Rotary News

Davey Warner, soon-to-be-inducted new member and avid outdoorsman shared a lovely and inspiring quote by Harold V. Melchert inviting us to “live your life each day as you would climb a mountain. An occasional glance toward the summit keeps the goal in mind, but many beautiful scenes are to be observed from each new vantage point.” 

David Stein introduced our guest speaker with an impressive list of achievements. Thomas E. Graham is a Distinguished Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He was the Senior Director for Russia on the National Security Council Staff during the George W. Bush administration and a special assistant to the president while managing a White House-Kremlin strategic dialogue. He is a co-founder of the Russian, East European and Eurasian studies program at Yale University, and has been a sought-after lecturer in global affairs and political science since 2011. 

Thomas’s excellent commentary gave us a behind-the-headlines look at what is happening in Ukraine, why it happened, Putin’s motives and what likely lies ahead for better or worse. He stressed that the nature of the conflict from the Russian standpoint is larger than the war in Ukraine.  He said that Moscow sees as a threat the expansion of NATO’s euro-atlantic region in the years following the cold war when Russia was weakened. Even if the war in Ukraine is resolved, we will likely still see an attempt to destabilize the NATO bond among nations. Moscow’s fear of encroachment is so strong that the present war in Ukraine is seen by some experts as part of Russia’s larger goal to take control of the seaports and the entire territorial region along the Black Sea, for security and economic reasons. 

Putin so far has underestimated Ukraine’s resistance. The timing of the invasion was likely influenced by the fact that Zelensky was a new president who scored low in the polls in his inaugural time before the invasion, easily replaceable in Putin’s mind.  Zelensky also had made a concerted approach to NATO to make good on its 2008 promise to work toward adding Ukraine. This made Moscow nervous, as did the observation that NATO countries had begun to help train other countries on defensive exercises. Putin had little active resistance from NATO in other invasions, and he did not expect the united front it displayed this time.

Ultimately, Putin underestimated both Zelensky and the Ukraine Resistance, while overestimating the readiness and capability of his military. Thomas opined that whatever comes next in the Ukrainian-Russian war, there is likely no negotiated future for the conflict simply because Moscow wants Ukraine to surrender, and they will not do so. Putin sees victory as his only solution to Russia’s security and his personal future. He declared a goal to win the war by May 9, an important Russian Victory Day Holiday celebrating its triumph over Nazi Germany. Whether he will resort to maniacal weaponry to get there, or instead focus on seizing the Donbas region to declare victory, remains to be seen in the days ahead. He is already a war criminal for the organized atrocities committed by Russian soldiers on civilians. Thomas feels it will take a decade or more for Ukraine to recover from all that has happened so far. And the impact on its people much longer, if ever.